One unusual component of my S&P 500 plan for February 2023 was the impact of a strong January off of a bear market that was contrary to what most expected. When this happens, as it did in January, February often closes higher.

On the flip side of my February plan was the 200- and 50-day moving average crossover at a major support area. The yellow box below drew attention to it.

All in all, the projection of my plan looked like this:

After Presidents Day on Feb. 20, the market was bombarded with unwelcomed Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI) and Federal Reserve news. February’s second half then made history for its price action.

Note the response to the month open (blue highlights).

Note the response to the dotted line (more blue highlights).

Finally, note the month close right between the 200- and 50-day moving averages spread.

Why is this important? 

Here’s what I wrote last month:

If February closes strongly to the downside after the recent December and January move in price action, then thoughts on a solid first quarter or year end must be reconsidered. In other words, the trend in place from October needs to be reevaluated.

March is next.

The first four days have shown constructive strength. With Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking twice this week, I don’t expect that to last… assuming his personality hasn’t changed.

Pandemic-driven economic repercussions continue to resolve, as displayed in the data, giving hopes of a stronger March. While not thrilling to live through and often questioned, less bad news has a way of lifting the market.

Caution remains, however… For one, the 200- and 50-day moving average spread is still very much in play for March.

Keep this in mind — this is very important…

The major support occurring right now because of the two moving averages does not last forever. History is revealing. Check it out for yourself and decide how you think this will play out, and when.

Another area that has my attention in the short term is the orange box where mid-month CPI, PPI and Fed news come back into play.

All this to say: March winds can be volatile. 

Trading with multiple strategies remains key in Q1. Doing so will likely give you insight into the summer months ahead, which is a very important topic we’ll revisit soon.

Think and win!

Celeste Lindman
Celeste Lindman Trading

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Past performance is not indicative of any future results. Trade at your own risk. From 1/1/22 to 3/6/23 the win rate is 63.6% on the stock, the average return per trade on options is 8.44% (winners and losers), and the average winner is 138% with an average hold time of 31 days.

March, however, points to a seasonally bumpy ride — at least for the first half, which means trading with care while patience remains prudent.

That’s where a plan comes in handy, especially as we look to the second half, where the market gains strength historically.

It’s not as simple as that, but one nice caveat is that fund managers want to look good on March 31 to close out their highly judged first quarter.

Here are three scenarios — neutral, weak and strong — as to how it might play out from month open to close:

March Winds

The first play to consider is that price action in the S&P 500 could easily test the year open and December lows. If these key levels are reached, many retail traders will become fearful again.

The Dow has already broken below both levels, which doesn’t bode well for the 2022 bear market overachiever.

The Russell, however, caught my eye as it moved above its 10-month moving average, a longer-term view to keep in mind. Likewise, the Nasdaq’s strength can’t be overlooked in the monthly charts.

It’s the Economy — or at Least The Fed

Key economic data dates to keep in mind this month include: 

• March 14: Consumer Price Index.
• March 15: Producer Price Index.
• March 22: Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision.
• March 30: U.S. GDP. 

If the seasonal trends hold up, the market could view the above news events as mostly positive. I don’t know for sure that this will happen… But what I do know is I will watch for opportunity no matter what.

This month will also bring the regular employment, housing, consumer and sentiment news events, which have recently been mixed with ups and downs.

Watch out for false signals!

Traders will be anxious to make moves, but not all trades will be worthy.

Take extra measures to confirm trades to the upside or the downside.

Think and win!

Celeste Lindman
Celeste Lindman Trading

P.S. New Buy Alert For March

As you may know, Senior Strategist Roger Scott and I are very different traders…

We look at different metrics, target different stocks, and have very different viewpoints on the market. That said, he is still one of the most brilliant minds in finance…

Particularly when it comes to making big-time stock predictions. 

And within the past week, he made a BIG-TIME call on an unsuspecting stock… In fact, he even gave these stocks an “ultimate buy alert.”

To be honest, I was skeptical, which is normal for me… 

But as he connected the dots, it made complete sense as to why he gave it his “ultimate buy alert.”

Not only did he show us why this stock was a great play for March…

He even showed us how he derived his buy signal. Anyway, if you are looking for a new stock market play…

Something that has potential in both the short and medium term…

Then I Suggest You Listen to What Roger Has to Say! 

Be sure to join me, Jack Carter, Tom Busby and Don Yocham on this week’s roundtable at 10 a.m. ET on Wednesday, March 1, to hear what we have to say about the line in the sand that fund flows just crossed. 

Join us here at this link at 10 a.m. ET tomorrow!

Now, on to today’s tips on building your own financial playbook…

All successful traders have a thorough process for making money, no matter the market conditions — a playbook. 

Just like any sports team or business, it’s not widely shared, obviously, because it’s valuable and proprietary to them. 

You can create a valuable playbook, too.

It’s a matter of collecting the best steps that work for you, and putting them into action. 

Some of those steps include anticipating what will happen next, planning what to do when what happens next is not what you expected, and analyzing the play-by-play action.

Take this for example…

One key to my success is having a view of professional accumulation. I noticed accumulation picking up steam at the end of January in multiple stocks like Automatic Data Processing Inc. (Nasdaq: ADP).

They do this because they anticipate the price moving up and, consequently, they make money. 

This plan in their playbook has not worked for February on many tickers. The sideways action shown in the chart looks painful.

But this doesn’t mean they bury their heads or throw out the strategy… 

Instead, they analyze what went wrong, why it went wrong, and what it might mean for the future. 

For example, from my standpoint, the sideways movement is likely because of the negative reaction to economic data in the second half of the month. This can most easily be seen in the broad S&P 500 market.

In my opinion, everything from GDP to inflation, to Federal Reserve rate hike fears and so much more that impacts the great big economic ship are shown in the S&P 500’s price action.

But guess what… ADP is still being accumulated! 

Why? I can only guess, but my estimation is that professional buyers see an opportunity that others fear based on what the fearful see in the economy, as played out in the S&P 500.

The professional buyers of ADP might be wrong. But then again, they might be right. And they tend to be right more than they are wrong — so there’s a big tip for the back of your mind.

Any well-prepared plan meets obstacles along the way. 

A professional trader expects and plans for them — just like a professional plans for success.

Think and win!

Celeste Lindman
Celeste Lindman Trading

P.S. Have an Extra $500 Lying Around?

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Whether you’re starting with $1 million in your retirement account… or just ten grand.

Of course, nothing is ever guaranteed in the markets… There’s no magic pill…

There will be winning weeks — and losing weeks, too… 

But the method he’ll share today has been able to lock in some pretty handsome payouts — week after week with a 97.1% success rate on over 100 signals…

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Disclaimer: Since the start of 2021, on over 100 trades, this service has had a 97.1% rate of successful trade recommendations. With that said, nothing is guaranteed, and we make no future earnings claims.

The bottom line of what we’re seeing is a response to the economy with all of its very large pieces and parts.

The problem is that studying it all is daunting for most traders, and it takes us away from our main focus: making money.

To help you quickly ascertain market direction and economic responses, here’s a bare-bones tip to keep in mind…

The U.S. dollar, as shown on this Barchart of $DXY, provides a smooth summary of reactions to the whole economic enchilada.

Currently, a return up to the 200-day moving average at $106.46 is a notable target. What will be most interesting to me is the reaction to this resistance area, especially given that support at the 50-day moving average is not too far below.

Be informed as you anticipate future price action.

Take a further step back and note how beautifully $DXY used the 50-day as support from March 2022 until mid-October.

Around that time in October, the S&P 500 began a nice run up from a bear market bottom. But right now…

The S&P 500 is at a crossroads.

A few weeks ago, the 200- and 50-day lines crossed. And they’re about to be retested in multiple ways, as you can see in the green circle on the chart.

It’s worth noting that the green trend lines drawn have also converged at the crossroads.

Where do you think the market will move after the crossroads are encountered? Well, the answer is worth like a million bucks.

Use a process like this to help you make sense of the economy, and in turn make more cents. I know you can!

It takes a dollar to make a dollar.

One simple way to play this activity and keep your head in the economic activity at the same time is with the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSEArca: UUP). The options are thin, but the ETF is cheap, currently around $28 a share.

Think and win!

Celeste Lindman

P.S. Calling All People Looking For a New Way to Trade

I’m not signing you up for an overnight shift, or having you pick up extra hours. You don’t need any exotic financial trading…

In fact, Jack Carter of Jack Carter Trading, wants to show you his speedy way of targeting this income, right here, right now.

Go Here to Learn His New Strategy

Understand Time

The first place I go is the S&P 500 for a perspective based on time frames.

We’re below February’s month open and coming off some strong overbought territories from a daily perspective. This is a strong case for the bears, but the markets have “climbed a wall of worry” since early October, which is what bulls do.

As shown in this weekly chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEArca: SPY), we’re in the middle of a nearly five-month trend. From here, this week of the second month of the first quarter, we head up or down… simple as that.

With only six trading days left for the month of February, both bears and bulls are on the line.

We must understand the implications of time…

Review Economic News Event Dates

Reviewing the week’s topics on a site like Econoday.com is a great way to start the post-holiday process.

This week, we get to read the Federal Open Market Committee’s minutes from its last meeting, when it raised its benchmark interest rate another 0.25% — that will be fun! Oh my!

We also find out about housing, the Purchasing Managers Index, the latest jobs data and consumer sentiment.

There’s also a “small” number coming out on Thursday…  GDP. I jest because that’s the number recessionary pundits and all others are eyeing. Understandably so because it could definitely mix things up a bit.

 Speaking of mixing things up…

Are you aware that the man behind one of the best recession indicators — a yield curve inversion — reversed his position for this recent inversion ? 

The inverted yield curve — which is when short-dated interest rates have a higher yield than long-term rates — has successfully pointed to U.S. recessions since the late 1960s. Economist Campbell Harvey first discovered this, as shown in his dissertation at the University of Chicago. 

He’s been 8 for 8 since then — and “with no false alarms,” he said during a recent interview…

“I have reasons to believe, however, that it is flashing a false signal,” Harvey said about this latest inversion.

Why? The main reason he says is because of the employment situation. The demand for labor is still strong, even in the midst of large tech layoffs.

Before bulls get too excited, there’s another indicator showing some deterioration: housing starts. It’s easy to see why this week’s housing report remains important in this Bespoke chart…

Remain Flexible

The best approach for any week, however, is to remain flexible. Put bias aside and trade by rules. This will help you get on the right side of the market, whichever direction it takes.

Have trade approaches that take advantage of up, down and sideways moves.

Doing so puts the diversification into your portfolio that so many traders are missing.

February will end. Bear markets will end, as will bull markets. Even the trend will end. You know all of this.

The way to stay alive and succeed in trading markets is to know when to bend.

Think and win!

Celeste Lindman

P.S. Calling All People Looking For a New Way to Trade

I’m not signing you up for an overnight shift, or having you pick up extra hours. You don’t need any exotic financial trading…

In fact, Jack Carter of Jack Carter Trading, wants to show you his speedy way of targeting this income, right here, right now.

Go Here to Learn His New Strategy

With nine trading days remaining in February and plenty of economic jitters to go around, we could go up or down from here. Are you prepared?

This daily chart of the S&P 500 futures shows the action for February, overlaid with my previously drawn black trend lines.

If you’ve seen my Telegram, you know this is how I projected the month:

Here’s the movement I anticipated:

Here’s where we are now:

Critical Juncture for the S&P 500: Where February 2023 Could End

Being spot on is not the point. The point is using data to make money… Which is why we want to have an idea about where the S&P 500 is headed next.

The first option is we head down, and end the month down. If this happens, the first break is 4,067 area. 

From there, it’s the 4,045, 4,033, 4,000 and 3,995 levels, for starters.

If February does indeed end the month down, the outlook for March is not so rosy, and this is the popular narrative at the moment.

Here’s the second option: We head sideways.

That’s the easy way out for now, so I’ll save that discussion for another time.

Finally, the third option is we head gingerly up, and end the month up. If this happens, historically, the facts point to a higher March — they just do.

I know this is opposite of what many well-grounded economic factors point to today. But at some point, less bad news prevails. It always does.

This time is not different … for either direction.

And I have to remain open-minded for many well-grounded reasons. And that means I have to be prepared for both the ups and downs, because they all will come.

At the end of the day, all I have to do is make money. That’s why I’m here, and I think that’s why you’re here, too!

So here’s how I do it…

1. Trade with a plan that follows rules — long and short.
2. Take what the market gives me.
3. Put fear and greed in their place — the trash can.

Each step is a topic we’ll cover. For now, keep your head in the game — you were made for this!

Think and win! 

Celeste Lindman
On the Go Investing

*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is an inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 

P.S. Prepare for 2023’s Make or Break Moment TODAY…

What New Money Crew Head Trader Lance Ippolito just uncovered could be devastating news to regular investors. 

He’s seeing cash move out of many of the most widely held stocks at a pace you wouldn’t believe. 

And he wants to show you WHY capital is leaving stocks, and WHERE it’s going so you can prepare NOW…

The bottom line is he expects this money transfer to crush buy-and-hold portfolios in the coming days…

That’s why you need to see the options available right now…

Including a new way to get out of stocks and into something far better… And far more effective for today’s conditions…

Look, the tides could turn in the coming days… And the aftermath could absolutely make or break investor wealth for the next decade or more.

You owe it to yourself to at least hear what Lance has to say.

With positive rallies during the last week of December, the first week of January, and the entire month of January — a “trifecta” per the “Stock Trader’s Almanac” — the research far beyond STA points to quite a positive year.

That doesn’t mean it will happen. It just means traders should be open-minded and ready for whatever the market gives. 

February Wants To Be Your Valentine

The second month of the new year is a bit all over the place seasonally…

Nonetheless, putting it together with a variety of pieces and parts from the economy and the past, the direction points upward for February, which also points to an upward bias in March. Yes, you read that correctly.

Just how far up? Here’s my take on it and my “Hard Right Edge” and my February 2023 market outlook.

But not so fast. Keep this in mind…

• Anything can happen.
• Markets can go higher than anyone thinks.
• Markets can go lower than anyone thinks.
• No one has a functioning crystal ball.

News And Glitches That Move

On the flip side, if February closes strongly to the downside after the recent December and January move up in price action, then thoughts on a solid Q1 or year must be reconsidered. In other words, the trend in place from October would need to be reevaluated.

What could cause a move? News events.

They inflict moments of pain and joy in price action every month.

Here’s my euphemism… Wherever the market goes, that’s where it intended to go.

Remember this on Dec. 13?

How about this unexpected event on Jan. 24?

The glitch had this impact on over 250 stocks:

The natural response is for me to say, “Hey, NYSE, I’m not buying it!” But that would not be true…

That’s because some professional accumulation just stepped in the last few trading days. I wonder how long I’ll have to wait for a carefully timed “buy” to pay off, or where it will go?

Dating February

Regardless of my euphemism and other useless-isms about the market, here are a few news dates to remember.

Retail Sales, Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports all come the week of Feb. 14, along with monthly options expiration.

Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes, GDP and housing data debut the week of Feb. 21 after the President’s Day holiday on Feb. 20. 

The last day, Feb. 28, is seasonally slightly down. Maybe it’s because seven news events are scheduled.

More Trends And Bends: Be On The Lookout

Watch tech, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (Nasdaq: QQQ), and small caps, tracked by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSEArca: IWM), this month. Their continued strength supports quite the positive year narrative — regardless of what the 2023 minds think about either. This is further emphasized if February is positive.

Keep an eye on global markets. They started the rally in Q3 2022. Will they pull back for buying opportunities, keep going or end the current trend and no longer be called “friend”?

Don’t lose sight of the Nasdaq low on Dec. 28. A break of near- or short-term support areas could imply that January’s rally in the S&P 500 is just fool’s gold.

Finally, the Dow and Utilities, Consumer Staples and Health Care sectors will have my attention, partially to see what they do and greedily to see if there is opportunity.

That is until some other sector starts capturing my short attention span with its pretty flashing lights saying “Buy me! Buy me!”

If it does, I’ll let you know!

Think and Win!

Celeste Lindman
On the Go Investing

P.S. Be sure and join my Telegram channel for all of my latest market updates and other goodies!

Now, about improving your trading results…

The S&P 500 just finished a historic first month of gains. Maybe your results were better than you expected, or maybe your results have you feeling left in the dust.

Professional traders always work to hone their skills, regardless. Here are some ways you can, too…

Know The Way

Have an idea as to where the broader market can go over a designated time frame.

At the beginning of last month, I posted my projection for January…

And here’s how it finished…

Having this framework helped me make money. Understanding news events, trends and cycles are a few keys I used. Applying these components and others in your own way might help you improve your trading success.

Keep in mind that markets can go higher than you think, lower than you think, and sideways for longer than you think.

Just because a market is oversold, overbought or over the hill doesn’t mean it can’t go into overdrive.

Know the Main Drivers

Study the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, and understand which ones are strong and which ones are weak.

The evidence is in! The Information Technology sector took control of January, followed by Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services. Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities all lagged.

Could it be that the economic news is becoming less bad and we’re starting the climb out of the recession? (Yes, I’m on record saying that in the months ahead we’ll get notice that “the U.S. has been in a recession”).

Or maybe the Tech sector and its buddies are just having a dead cat bounce.

Either or both are possible.

According to Bespoke, just 10 stocks in the top 3 sectors contributed 49.49% of the 230 points gained by the S&P 500 in January! I bet you can guess at least five in five seconds… 

But just in case, here they are… 

• Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL).
• Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN) 
• Tesla Inc. (Nasdaq: TSLA).
• Nvidia Corp. (Nasdaq: NVDA). 
• Meta Platforms Inc. (Nasdaq: META).
• Alphabet Inc. Class C (Nasdaq: GOOG).
• Alphabet Inc. Class A (Nasdaq: GOOGL).
• Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT). 
• Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS). 
• Visa Inc. (NYSE: V). 

Looking at Health Care, Consumer Staples and Utilities, could they be the winners of February, or will their carnage get worse?

The point is this: Understanding keys about sectors helps traders make cents in stocks, and that’s the next topic.  

Know The Players

Start each day, week or month with a stock watch list.

Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE: LLY) was one of my favorite stocks for 2022. I’m watching for a pullback to time my next entry because I still like its fundamentals. It might not come in 2023 — after all, a lot of insiders took profits last quarter. But I’m still watching.

Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG), in the Energy sector… now there’s a dog! That’s an ugly 10-year chart if I ever saw one.

Oh by the way, insiders massively bought this stock last year, and check out the volume on the bottom right. 

If you’re serious about trading and improving your results, look at a daily chart to get a different picture. Is there an opportunity? Maybe, maybe not… But someone is buying.

Here’s what I find interesting: Although just 10 mega-cap stocks in just three sectors have taken control since the first of the year, a large number of smaller-cap stocks contributed more than their fair share to the January plunder.

You can see this in the Cumulative AD Line (light blue) overpowering the S&P 500’s dark blue line.

Compare what’s happening now — November 2022 through January 2023 — to what happened July through September 2022. How are they the same, how are they different, how can you use this information to become a better trader?

Think and win!

Celeste Lindman
On the Go Investing

*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 

“Up January, up year,” some say…  

Not to burst any bubbles but generally speaking, every trading year has a day — or two or three — of reckoning.

And this year will be no different. Regardless of economic circumstances or bear market years like 2022, markets move in cycles over the longer term.  

Take a look at the year-open price retests during these trading years boasting positive first months…

• 1994-99.
• 2003.
•  2006-07.
• 2011-12.

Be Flexible With Landings

Of the 12 years sampled, all but two ended the year in the positive. Of the two that ended down, they were only slightly negative, with the following January and year trading nicely to the upside — see 1994-95 and 2011-12 with 2013.

Note the calendar timing of the year-open tests. This is very important… It comes most often in the summertime, but not always.

Money is made in markets that move. And markets move up and down with an upward bias. Sometimes, they move drastically down — bear markets — and shake out a lot of traders.

For that matter, January 2023 is one week from closing. The S&P 500 is about one ATR (Average True Range, currently about 100 points) away from its year open. That’s not a lot of points…

Take Steps Forward

Here’s the real point: Be prepared instead of scared.

•  Learn and use a variety of proven strategies with a variety of time frames to add diversity to your portfolio.
• Measure your success, and…
• Stay positive.

If there’s one chart I can’t stop seeing, it’s this one from Bespoke. Note the date of the last time we were overall bearish for 54 weeks in a row. History is of course not indicative of future results. It just rhymes at some points in time.

Think and win!

Celeste Lindman
On the Go Investing

Be Prepared

If you’ve read my Telegrams and newsletters and even listened to my colleagues on this week’s roundtable, you were not surprised.

We’ve said markets are overbought, and current price action reflects this.

Certainly, headlines and economic data come into play, but it’s both ironic and profitable when the market plays into a predictable pattern.

Make A Plan

What I’m talking about is constructing a hard right edge that’s laying a framework for what might happen next at the far right side of the chart.

Here’s what I constructed on Jan. 10…

And here’s where we are now — it’s no accident…

What’s Next

My mind is open to the reality that price can approach any of the boxed levels in the days ahead before the close of January.

If price stays near the year and month open, traveling down as far as 3,800, the market has a solid chance of closing in the positive. If price penetrates the 3,750, 3,700 or 3,650 levels, then the bear just woke up again, in my opinion.

To me, the key is to watch all the levels inside the box above, which I base on Average True Range. This predetermined plan for price action gives me an edge and keeps me from being surprised or caught off guard.

Most importantly, it helps me make money and preserve capital.

I think it can help you, too.

Trade With A Sound Mind

I’m the first to say that markets do not move in straight lines, so be aware. However, the straight trend and support lines give order and direction to trading an unpredictable — and often volatile — future.

The market can trade wildly — with enormous volatility — if it wants. If it trades outside the box before the end of the month,  that gives me a warning sign of a bigger, more important trend.

If it does this, I’ll be sure to write about it so you can be informed!

Here’s to your success!

Celeste Lindman
On the Go Investing

P.S. The Market Shift That’s Turned Stock Trading on its Head

There’s been a huge change in the markets lately.

You’ve probably felt it in your own trading.

It used to be that stock prices pushed around the direction of options prices…

But for the first time ever, we’re now seeing so many options contracts being traded… options are pushing around the underlying stocks!

It’s getting to the point where it may soon be more important to analyze options data than the stock itself to forecast potential opportunities…

And to be completely honest — this is a huge shift that most traders have no idea how to handle.

But Jack Carter has teamed up with Celeste Lindman to share a single, critical stock that could see huge upside from this major change.

And they just went live to share how you can get ahead of the curve and take advantage of this seismic shift.

Watch Their Presentation Here