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Friday, June 26, 2020

Market Action

U.S. markets traded lower throughout Friday’s session following news of a number of states announcing new restrictions due to coronavirus and holding back on reopening plans. Specifically, Texas ordered new closures on bars and restaurants while Arizona and Florida also paused some reopenings.

Also weighing on the action were the bank stress test announcements and warnings from China that the U.S. may risk the Phase One trade deal if the U.S. meddles in Hong Kong. The Fed told banks to cap dividend payments to preserve capital, and barred buybacks in Q3 while China said the U.S. should refrain from going too far with meddling and red lines shouldn't be crossed.

The negative news and lower lows into the closing bell were enough to erase the weekly gains with the major indexes closing lower for the 2nd time over past 3 weeks. Volatility zigzagged for the 4th-straight session to return to elevated levels but is giving a neutral heading into a shortened week and the winding down of the second quarter.

The Dow was the weakest index after sinking 2.8% with the late day low tapping 24,971. Mid-month and upper support at 25,000-24,750 was breached but held with a close below the latter and the 50-day moving average signaling a further pullback towards 24,500-24,250.

The Nasdaq stumbled 2.7% following the backtest to 9,749 just ahead of the closing bell. Prior and upper support at 9,750-9,650 was tripped but held with a move below the latter setting up a further retest towards 9,600-9,500.

The Russell 2000 fell 2.4% with the afternoon low reaching 1,375. Near-term and upper support at 1,375-1,360 held by a half-point with a close below the latter signaling additional weakness towards 1,350-1,335 and the 50-day moving average.

The S&P 500 was also lower by 2.4% with the 2nd half low reaching 3,004. Current and upper support at 3,025-3,000 failed to hold with a drop below the latter suggesting additional selling pressure towards 2,975-2,950 and the 50-day moving average.

For the week, the Dow lost 3.3% and the S&P 500 slid 2.9%. The Russell 2000 gave back 2.8% while the Nasdaq was off 1.9%.

There was no sector strength on Friday. Communication Services and Financials were the weakest sectors after tanking 4.4% and 4.3%, respectively, while Energy sank 3.5%.

Over the past 5 sessions, Energy (-7.7%); Financial (-5.8%); Communication Services (-5.5%); and Real Estate (-4.6%) were the weakest sectors. There were no sectors that showed strength.


No update this week...

Global Economy

European markets settled mostly lower as traders remained cautious about a resurgence in U.S. coronavirus cases and its impact on the global economy.

The Belgium20 tumbled 1.6% and Germany's DAX 30 gave back 0.7%. The Stoxx 600 lost 0.4% and France’s CAC 40 faded 0.2%. UK's FTSE 100 edged up 0.2%.

Asian markets closed mostly higher despite news U.S. lawmakers are moving closer to sanctioning people and companies they consider China’s accomplices in curbing the city’s right of self-government.

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Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 surged 1.5% while South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei rallied 1.1%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.9%. China's Shanghai remained closed for a holiday.

U.S. Economy

Personal Income declined -4.2% in May with consumption bouncing 8.2%, following the 10.8% jumped in April income and a -12.6% drop in spending. Compensation rebounded to 2.5% from -7.4%, with wages and salaries rising 2.7% from -7.6% previously. Disposable income fell -4.9% after soaring 13.1% in April. The savings rate slid to 23.2% from 32.2%. The chain price index edged up 0.1% from -0.5%, with the core rate rising 0.1%, as well, to -0.3% from -0.4%. On a 12-month basis, the headline price index slowed to 0.5% year-over-year versus 0.6% previously, while the core was steady at 1%. Real personal spending increased 8.1% on the month.

Consumer Sentiment was at 78.1 for the final June reading, just below the 78.9 preliminary print. Both components beat last month's readings, but were bumped down from the preliminary readings. The current conditions index was at 87.1 and is up from the 82.3 print in May. The expectations component was at 72.3 versus May's 65.9. The 12-month inflation gauge was unchanged at the 3% preliminary reading, but slower than the 3.2% last month. The 5-year index dipped to 2.5% versus the 2.6% preliminary, and compares to May's 2.7% reading.

Baker-Hughes reported the U.S. rig count was down 1 rig from last week to 265 with oil rigs down 1 to 188, gas rigs unchanged at 75, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 2. The U.S. Rig Count is down 702 rigs from last year's count of 967, with oil rigs off 605, gas rigs lower by 98, and miscellaneous rigs up 1 to 2. The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is unchanged at 11 and down 15 year-over-year.

Market Sentiment

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) extended its winning streak to 3-straight sessions following the intraday trip $165.32 and fresh monthly peak. Prior and lower resistance from mid-May at $165-$165.50 was recovered. A close above the latter would signal additional strength towards $166.50-$167.

Rising support is at $164.50-$164 and the 50-day moving average.

RSI is in an uptrend with key resistance at 60 holding. A close above this level and the April peak would signal additional momentum towards 65-70. Support is at 55-50.

Volatility Index

The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) spiked to a midday high of 36.25 to keep a 9-session trading range intact. Current and lower resistance at 37-37.50 was challenged but held for the 3rd-straight session. A move above the latter would be a bearish development for the market with additional upside risk towards 40-42.50.

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Near-term support is at 35-34.50 followed by 32.50-32 and the 50-day moving average.

RSI is maintaining a neutral reading with resistance at 55-60 holding. A move above the latter would signal strength and a retest towards 65-70. Key support is at 50 with a drop back below this level being a slightly bullish signal for the market with additional weakness towards 45-40.

Market Analysis

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was down for the 2nd-time in 3 sessions with the intraday low tapping $239.68. Prior and upper support from earlier in the month at $240-$239.50 was tripped but held. A close below the latter would be an ongoing bearish development and suggest a further backtest towards $237.50-$235.

Lowered resistance is at $241.50-$242 with additional hurdles at $244.50-$245.

RSI is back in a downtrend with key support at 50 holding since early April. A move below this level would signal additional weakness towards 45-40. Resistance is at 55-60.


The Spider Gold Shares (GLD) snapped a 2-session losing streak after rebounding to reach an late day peak of $166.56. Current and lower resistance at $166.50-$167 was reclaimed. Continued closes above $167, and last week’s 52-week high of $166.99, would be a renewed bullish signal for strength towards the $170 area.

Current support is at $166-$165.50 followed by $164.50-$164. A close below the $164 level would signal a failed breakout.

RSI is trying to curl higher with key resistance at 65 holding. A close above this level and the monthly top would be a bullish signal with additional strength toward 70-75. Support is at 60-55. A close below the latter would also signal a possible near-term top for GLD with weakness towards 50-45.

The percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks trading above the 50-day moving

closed at 66.99% on Friday, down 1.94%. Current and upper support at 67.5%-65% was tripped and failed to hold. A close below the 65% level would signal a retest towards 62.5%-60% with the latter representing the monthly low. Resistance is at 70%-72.5%.

The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above the 200-day moving average settled at 32.47%, down 3.56%. Upper support from mid-May at 32.50%-30% was breached and failed to hold. A close below the latter would signal additional weakness towards 27.5%-25% and slightly oversold levels. Current resistance is at 35%-37.50%.

All the best,

Roger Scott