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Friday, November 30, 2019

Market Action

U.S. markets traded lower throughout Friday’s shortened session despite indications of a strong kick-off to the critical holiday selling season for the retail sector. Worries over president Trump’s signing of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019 led to the overall weakness and could be a sticking point to locking up a phase one trade deal.

China responded by saying trade negotiations are still on track as long as the President doesn't implement any of the law's measures. The limited action and slight pullback snapped 4-session winning streaks but wrapped up a solid month of November as the major indexes had their best showing since June.

The Russell 2000 fell 0.6% following the intraday backtest to 1,624. Current and upper support at 1,625-1,610 was breached and failed to hold by a half-point with risk towards 1,600-1,585 on a move below the latter.

The Nasdaq gave back 0.5% after trading to a late day low of 8,664. Current and upper support at 8,650-8,600 held with a move below the former signaling risk towards 8,550-8,500.

The S&P 500 was lower by 0.4% with the low reaching 3,139 ahead of the closing bell. Near-term and upper support at 3,125-3,100 easily held with a move below the latter opening up risk towards 3,075-3,050.

The Dow was also down 0.4% following the pullback to 28,042. Near-term and upper support at 28,000-27,800 held with a close below the former getting 27,600-27,400 in focus.

For the week, the Russell 2000 gained 2.3% and Nasdaq jumped 1.7%. The S&P 500 rose 1% and the Dow was up 0.6%. For November, the Nasdaq zoomed 4.5% and the Russell 2000 soared 3.8%. The Dow surged 3.7% and the S&P rallied 3.4%.

Energy was the weakest sector on Friday after falling 1% while Consumer Discretionary was down 0.7%. There was no sector strength.

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For the week, the best performing sectors were Consumer Discretionary (2.6%), Healthcare (2.2%) and Communication Services (1.7%). Energy (-1.6%) and Utilities (-0.q%) were the only sector laggards.


No update this week...

Global Economy

European markets settled lower on renewed U.S./ China trade tensions and the prospect of fresh protests in Hong Kong.

UK's FTSE 100 lost 0.9% and the Stoxx 600 fell 0.4%. The Belgium20 was off 0.2% while Germany's DAX 30 and France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.1%.

Asian markets ended the week with losses following the signing of bills by President Trump in support of Hong Kong protesters and the potential impact on ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng tumbled 2% and South Korea’s Kospi sank 1.5%. China's Shanghai dropped 0.6% and Japan’s Nikkei was down 0.5%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was lower by 0.3%.

The Bank of Korea announced its decision to keep the benchmark interest rate steady at 1.25%, in line with expectations of economists in a Reuters poll.

U.S. Economy

There were no major economic news on Friday.

Market Sentiment

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) was down for the 2nd-straight session after tapping a low of $139.78. Near-term and upper support at $140.50-$140 was breached and failed to hold. A close below the former and the 50-day moving average would be an ongoing bearish signal with downside risk towards $138.50-$138.

Current resistance from late October remains $141-$141.50.

RSI is in a downtrend with support at 55-50. A move below the latter would signal additional weakness towards 45-40. Resistance is at 60 and the November peak.

Volatility Index

The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) stayed elevated throughout Friday’s session with the high taping 12.83. Prior and lower resistance at 13-13.50 held with the close above 12.50 being a slightly bearish signal. Continued closes above this level keeps upside risk towards 14.50-50 and the 50/200-day moving averages in play.

Fresh support is at 12.50-12.

RSI is in an uptrend with resistance at 50. Continued closes above his level would signal additional strength towards 55-60 and early October highs. Support is at 45-40.

Market Analysis

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) had its 4-session winning streak snapped following the pullback to $205. Current and upper support at $205-$204.50 was triggered but held. A close below the latter would signal a possible near-term top with backtest potential towards $202.50-$202.

Resistance is at $205.50-$206. Continued closes above the latter and last Wednesday’s all-time high of $206.05 would be an ongoing bullish signal with upside potential towards $207-$207.50.

RSI has turned south on the close below upper support at 70-65. A close below the latter and the November low opens weakness towards the 60 level and late October support. Resistance is at 75.


The Communication Services Select Sector Spider (XLC) fell for the first time in 6 sessions after trading down to $52.51. Fresh and upper support at $52.50-$52.25 held. A close below the $52 level would be a slightly bearish signal for a further pullback towards $51.75-$51.50.

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Near-term resistance is at $52.75-$53. A move above the latter and last week’s all-time high at $52.80 would be a renewed bullish signal for a push towards $53.50-$54, depending on momentum.

RSI has reversed course after failing to hold resistance at 70. Continued closes below this level would be a bearish signal for additional weakness towards 65-60 with the former holding since early November.

The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above the 200-day moving average closed at 73.50% on Friday, down 2.19%, with the low reaching 73.30% ahead of the close. Upper support at 72.5%-70% held. A move below the latter and the November low at 68.78% would signal additional weakness towards 67.5%-65%. Resistance is at 75%. A close above this level and last week’s peak at 75.89% would be a renewed bullish signal with upside potential towards 77.5%-80% and January 2018 overbought levels.

The percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks trading above the 50-day moving average settled at 77%, down 1% with the low tapping 76%. Near-term and upper support at 77.5%-75% was breached and failed to hold. A close below the latter would be signal additional weakness towards 72.5%-70%. Current resistance is at 80% with last week’s high reaching 78% and the early November peak at 78.64%. A close above these overbought levels would be a renewed bullish signal for a push towards 85% and July highs.

All the best,

Roger Scott