Monday, January 13, 2020

Market Action

U.S. markets rebounded on Monday as Wall Street prepares for the upcoming 4Q earnings season. The Financial sector will be in focus throughout the week with a number of companies reporting and their stock at, or near, 52-week peaks.

Economic news was light while volatility stayed in a tight range. Reports that the Trump administration will reportedly lift the currency manipulator designation for China, helped sentiment, as the two countries are finally set to sign the Phase One trade deal midweek.

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The Nasdaq jumped 1% with the afternoon and new all-time high reaching 9,274. Fresh and lower resistance at 9,250-9,300 was cleared and held with a close above the latter signaling upside potential towards 9,350-9,400.

The Russell 2000 was higher by 0.7% after closing on its session high of 1,669. Near-term and lower resistance at 1,665-1,680 was cleared and held for the first time in 4 sessions with the late December 52-week high at 1,681.

The S&P 500 also gained 0.7% after closing on the session peak of 3,288 and fresh record high. Current and lower resistance at 3,275-3,300 was cleared and held with a close above the latter signaling a possible run towards 3,325-3,350.

The Dow nudged up 0.3% with the intraday high reaching 28,909. Current and lower resistance at 28,900-29,000 was cleared and held with a move above the latter signaling additional strength towards 29,200-29,400.

Materials and Technology were sector standouts after rallying 1.3% while Real Estate rose 1.2%. Healthcare was the only sector laggard after falling 0.4%.

Global Economy

European markets closed mostly lower to start the week after Britain’s economy grew at its weakest annual pace in more than 7 years in November, raising expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates later this month.

The Belgium20 fell 0.6% while Stoxx 600 and Germany's DAX 30 dipped 0.2%. France’s CAC 40 was down a point, or 0.02%. UK's FTSE 100 added 0.4%.

U.K.’s GDP shrank by 0.3% during the month of November, versus expectations for an unchanged reading, while manufacturing output fell by an alarming 1.7%.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) reiterated that auto sales are likely to shrink for a third consecutive year in 2020, damaging the outlook for European carmakers and one of their most important markets.

Asian markets settled mostly higher in anticipation of the signing of the long-awaited Phase One trade deal between the U.S. and China.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng jumped 1.1% and South Korea’s Kospi soared 1%. China's Shanghai advanced 0.8% and Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.5%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gave back 0.4%.

U.S. Economy

The Treasury Budget for December checked in at -$13.3 billion, versus expectations of -$15 billion. Receipts rose to $335.8 billion last month from November's $225.2 billion, and were up 7.4% year-over-year. Outlays fell to $349.1 billion from November's $434 billion, but are up 7% year-over-year. This brings the deficit to -$356.6 billion for the first three months of fiscal 2020, up 11.8% year-over-year, from -$318.9 billion for the same period in 2018.

Market Sentiment

Atlanta Fed Raphael Bostic said he is inclined to let the economy run hot enough to boost inflation. He indicated it's going to be a pretty high bar for the Fed to make policy more contractionary, confirming the slant from recent FOMC meetings that a rate hike is a long way off.

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) had its 2-session winning streak snapped following the intraday pullback to $137.39. Current and upper support at $138-$137.50 and the 50-day moving average were breached but held. A close below the latter would signal additional weakness with risk towards $136.50-$136.

Current resistance remains at $138.50-$139. A close above $139.50-$140 would be a more bullish signal of a near-term bottom.

Volatility Index

The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) fell for the 5th time in 6 sessions after closing on the session low of 12.32. Near-term and upper support at 12-11.50 easily held on the close below the 12.50 level.

Lowered resistance is at 12.75-13.25. A close above 13.50, and a level that has held for 3-straight sessions, would signal a possible retest towards 14.50-15 and the 200-day moving average.

Market Analysis

The iShares Russell 1000 (IWF) was higher for the 3rd time in 4 sessions with after settling at the session and all-time high of $182.08. Near-term and lower resistance at $182-$182.50 was cleared and held. A close above the latter would be an ongoing bullish signal with upside potential towards $183.50-$185 over the near-term.

Current and rising support is at $181.50-$181. A close below the $180 level would signal a possible near-term top with additional risk towards $178-$177.50.

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RSI is back in an uptrend after clearing key resistance at 75. Continued closes above this level keeps 80 and the monthly peak in play but overbought conditions from January 2018, as well. Key support is at 70 and a level that has been holding since mid-December. A close below 70 would signal additional weakness towards 65-60.

Sector

The Health Care Select Sector Spider (XLV) had its 3-session winning streak snapped following the late day pullback to $102.08. Near-term and upper support is at $102.50-$102 was breached and failed to hold. A close below the latter would likely signal a possible near-term top with additional selling pressure towards $101-$100.50.

Current resistance is at $103-$103.50 with last Friday’s all-time high at $103.33. Continued closes above the latter would be a renewed bullish signal with upside potential towards $104.50-$105.

RSI is back in a slight downtrend with key support at 60 and the monthly low. This level has also been holding since mid-October with a close below 60 signaling additional weakness towards 55-50. Resistance is at 70.

All the best,

Roger Scott
WealthPress