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Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Market Action

U.S. markets extended their losing streak to 3-straight sessions on Tuesday after President Trump said there is not a deadline for a trade deal with China and that it might be best to wait until after the 2020 election. The comments soured sentiment and led to continued selling pressure from the opening bell with the technical damage that started last Friday worsening for the major indexes.

Additional tariff developments with France and other geopolitical concerns voiced by President Trump kept a lid on the afternoon bounce off the lows. The rebound was slightly bullish although volatility continues to confirm possible near-term selling pressure after trading past and closing above another set of key resistance levels.

The Dow tanked 1% while bottoming at 27,325 shortly after the opening bell. Fresh and upper support at 27,400-27,200 was breached but held with a close below the latter and the 50-day moving average opening up risk towards the 27,000 level.

The S&P 500 sank 0.7% with the session low reaching 3,070. New and upper support at 3,075-3,050 was pierced but held with a move below the latter being an ongoing bearish signal with additional downside potential towards 3,025-3,000 and the 50-day moving average.

The Nasdaq gave back 0.6% after testing an intraday low of 8,435. Near-term and upper support at 8,450-8,400 was tripped but held with a close below the latter getting 8,325-8,275 and the 50-day moving average in play.

The Russell 2000 lost 0.3% following the opening drop to 1,589. Prior and upper support at 1,600-1,585 was breached but held with a close below the former signaling additional weakness towards 1,565-1,550 and the 50-day moving average.

Real Estate and Utilities were the only sectors that showed strength after rising 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively. Energy and Financials led sector laggards after falling 1.5% and 1.4%.

Global Economy

European markets settled mostly lower following fresh rounds of geopolitical talk and tariffs.

UK's FTSE 100 sank 1.8% and France’s CAC 40 fell 1%. The Stoxx 600 and the Belgium20 gave back 0.6%. Germany's DAX 30 edged up 0.2%.

Asian markets also closed mostly lower and prior to President Trump’s tough talk on not reaching a possible phase 1 trade deal with China until next year.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 tanked 2.2% to pace the losses while Japan’s Nikkei was down 0.6%. South Korea’s Kospi was lower by 0.4% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.2%. China's Shanghai gained 0.3%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its main cash rate at a record low of 0.75%, a move that was in-line with expectations.

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Hong Kong’s retail sales in October plunged 24.3% from a year earlier, against a revised 18.2% drop in September and a 23% fall in August.

U.S. Economy

Chain store sales sank 5.9% last week, after rising 1.6% in the prior week, with sales slowing to a 2.0% year-over-year pace from 4.5% previously. Adverse weather likely played a big part behind the weekly drop. Additionally, it looks as though some sales were pulled forward, while there was also a tough comparison to last year's sales. However, sales will likely sharply rebound, if record Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales are indications, along with there being 6 fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas than last year.

Market Sentiment

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) snapped a 3 session slide after soaring to an intraday high of $141.77. Prior and lower resistance from mid-September at $141.50-$142 was cleared but held. Continued closes above the former would signal additional strength towards $142.50-$143.

The triple-top breakout from early October above $141 and close back above the 50-day moving average was a bullish development. This level will try to hold as key support on a pullback with backup help at $140.50-$140.

Volatility Index

The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) was up for the 4th-straight session after zooming to a high of 17.99 shortly after the opening bell. Prior and upper resistance from late September at 17-17.50 was breached but held. A close above the latter keeps upside risk towards 19.50-20 in play.

New support is at 15.50-15 and the 200-day moving average. Continued closes below the former would signal a possible near-term top and would be a slightly bullish signal for the market.

Market Analysis

The S&P 400 Mid Cap Index ($MID) extended its losing streak to 3-straight sessions after testing a low of 1,969. Prior and upper support from late October at 1,980-1,970 was breached but held. A close below the latter would signal continued weakness with a further backtest towards 1,960-1,950 and the 50-day moving average.

Lowered resistance is at 1,990-2,000. Continued closes above the former would signal a possible near-term bottom and would be a be a bullish signal retest towards 2,010-2,030 and fresh 52-week peaks.

RSI remains in a downtrend after failing to hold key support at 50 and a level that has been holding since mid-October. Continued closes below 50 keeps weakness towards 45-40 in play. Resistance is at 55-60.

Sector

The Materials Select Sector (XLB) was also down for the 3rd-straight session following the pullback to $58.62. Near-term and upper support at $58.75-$58.50 was tripped but held. A close below the latter and the 50-day moving average reopens downside risk towards $58-$57.50 and late October lows.

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New and lowered resistance is at $59.25-$59.50 on the close just above $59 and a previous triple-top hurdle from July. Continued closes above $59.50 would be a renewed bullish signal with upside potential towards $60.50-$61 and resistance levels from last month and September 2018.

RSI is in a downtrend with support at 45-40. A move below the latter would signal additional weakness towards 35-30 and lower levels from October and August. Resistance is at 50.

All the best,

Roger Scott
WealthPress