Do you know what the presidential election cycle theory is? It’s a theory that suggests equity market returns go through the same pattern after each presidential election.
The theory suggests that U.S. stock markets perform the weakest during the first year of a new president’s term. During the second year, the markets recover and then peak the following year — only to fall once more in the fourth year.
Rinse, wash and repeat for the next presidential election.
Wall Street typically sees a lot of action during any normal election year, but we think it’s fair to say 2020 has been anything but normal.
That’s why WPTV asked Berkeley graduate and investing expert Dr. Richard Smith to discuss how this year’s presidential election cycle could be giving us clues to how the stock market may play out differently over the next four years… and you won’t believe what he has to say to us…