Right now, the markets are under extreme pressure. 

Energy stocks broke down first this afternoon. Now, I’m looking for biotech to sell… and then… the large banks. It could be a very ugly week for Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Citigroup (C).

I prefer another area in the financial sector – one with a goldmine of potential.

So if you’re not taking advantage of a 35-year trend that has consistently made investors money, I don’t know what to tell you. It’s simple. It’s obvious. It’s one of the best public stock strategies that no one is watching.

If you’re worried about the market over the next two weeks, you need to put your money here instead.

A Diamond in the Rough

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates four times in 2022 and several additional times in 2023. 

This is part of an aggressive push toward the “normalization” of interest rates and provides a boost to banks, whose bread-and-butter business is lending. Last year, MarketWatch offered an article for investors to cash in on this story. It didn’t really work out the way that the company intended.

The title: “These 14 bank stocks are in the best position to benefit from rising interest rates.”

Fourteen? Fourteen! 

Don’t even get me started on trying to find where to get started on 14 banks.

The list does include a few names of banks that I do like. 

New York Community Bank (NYCB), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), and First Republic Bank (FRC). But the author is writing about several different figures that don’t matter when you’re looking to buy and hold a bank. 

There’s the speculation about Forward Price-to-Earnings, which is speculation on the future. 

There are various earnings per share estimates – again, speculation. 

There’s very little analysis on whether any of these stocks are… well… cheap. 

In the world of banking, there’s only one metric you need to use to look for cheap banks.

It’s called “Price to Tangible Book Value” (P/TBV).

This is the stock price compared to the company’s liquidation value. 

Imagine that a bank sits across the street with $1 million in the vault. The bank owns the land and has few costs. For practical purposes, let’s just say that the liquidation value of the bank is $1 million. 

But for some reason, the bank’s market capitalization on the public market is $800,000.

That would be a price of $800,000 on a tangible book value of $1 million.

Or 0.8.

Banks might trade under their tangible book value for many reasons. They might be illiquid in terms of trading. They might face regulatory hurdles. Finally, they might just be banks that no one has ever heard of – and the herd prefers to own JPMorgan Chase (JPM). 

Well, I want to stress that there is ample opportunity in these cheap banks with low price-to-tangible book values. Here’s why.

M&A Continues 

Since 1987, community banks have consolidated at a 3% to 5% annual average rate. Yes, there are some outlier years, but the trend remains. Back in the 1980s, there were 15,000 banks in the United States.

 Today, there are under 4,500. 

 But don’t mistake this consolidation as a sign of slowing down. Remember, by comparison, Canada has five banks. The U.S. number could always fall to that level in the decades ahead. 

 Look at community banks that are trading under a price-to-tangible book value of under 1. 

 And I just added one of the best in my Tactical Wealth Investor. In January, I crushed the S&P 500, and I’m now tapping into a New-Jersey based community bank that trades for about 79 cents on the dollar. 

This company operates in the increasingly popular digital banking space and has incredible upside should it become a takeover candidate. 

Best of all, there’s a very small correlation between these banks and the S&P 500. 

So even if the market takes a bath over the next week due to the Fed or the jobs report, this stock has a lot of protection against any downside. Today, shares trade for under $12. But if this company finds a suitor, it could find a buyout in the $20 to $22 range. 

Check out my letter right here and get in on the Charter price at a ridiculously low $39 per month. 

Enjoy your day,

Garrett Baldwin

P.S. Please let me know if you have any feedback, questions about today’s issue or anything else. Just email us at hubfeedback@wealthpress.com.

*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is an inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 

Market Momentum is Green

Momentum is still green despite the Fed news today, but we could see a very violent shift in expectations over the next 24 to 48 hours. What will the market do? We’ll find out. If there is a change, you’ll be among the first to know. 

Last Wednesday, I made you look at a picture of Jamie Dimon.

My question: Would Dimon smile or hide his face after JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) reported earnings on Friday? Even though JPM topped earnings expectations and crushed revenue projections, the stock dropped rather sharply. 

The reason: Dimon warned about the state of the U.S. economy – and the bank predicted the nation would fall into a mild recession. In fact, JPM said that a “mild recession” was the base-case scenario for the year ahead. 

Let’s take a look at Dimon’s statement on Friday… and discuss how you need to prepare yourself for this market.

Quantitative Tightening Looms

Here’s what Dimon said Friday morning: 

“We still do not know the ultimate effect of the headwinds coming from geopolitical tensions including the war in Ukraine, the vulnerable state of energy and food supplies, persistent inflation that is eroding purchasing power and has pushed interest rates higher, and the unprecedented quantitative tightening.”

Parse through this and you see a repeat of most challenges that hit the U.S. economy in 2022. War, rising commodity prices, wage inflation, rate hikes and quantitative tightening (QT).

In addition, as I noted in my questions around earnings season last week, loan loss provisions were the big question for banks. 

In the fourth quarter, loan loss provisions were much smaller than expected. On Friday, however, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo announced they were setting aside much more money than Wall Street anticipated for possible defaults in the year ahead. JPM alone set aside $2.4 billion, well above expectations for the $1.9 billion set by the Street.

So what’s causing that concern? I’d argue it’s the last part of Dimon’s statement…

QT is a real challenge that too many people — even the smartest people on Wall Street — still underestimate.

It’s not just the process of raising interest rates to maybe 5% in the next few months. It’s also the fact that the Fed is pulling liquidity out of this market at a staggering pace. The central bank will likely pull at least $1 trillion by selling assets on its massive balance sheet before it finally pivots. 

This practice will also raise borrowing costs, tighten banking loan standards, and make it harder to do business in this environment. 

In addition, we’ll likely see a situation where investors question the amount of money they’re willing to pay for earnings – which, too, could start to backslide in a major way in the months ahead. 

The U.S. economy has barely experienced the full impact of higher rates and tightening. There’s a lag in this policy. The U.S. economy won’t be able to handle 5% interest rates for a very long time – even if the Fed argues it must keep those rates elevated to stamp out inflation. 

This chart from Bloomberg shows there’s a very serious market reaction to the decline in CPI, the underlying concerns about a recession and the Fed’s rate hikes. The market is trying to get interest rates lower – at a much faster pace than the Fed would like.

Yet we see a gap in projections between the market’s implied yield and the Fed’s projections. Things could go sideways very quickly for the markets without cooperation on one side or the other. This chart shows that the Fed might break something.

The Fed has hinted it will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in February. Another 25 points is likely in March. And we’ll probably see at least one more hike by May. 

Then, the narrative will shift, as I explained last week. 

The chart above shows that the market is begging the Fed to cut rates sooner than what the market expects. I don’t think the market will get its wish – a reason why I remain bearish about the S&P 500 regardless of a pivot (likely in the third quarter). 

Be careful. And remember to focus on companies that can handle any next wave of inflation – as a trigger-happy Fed would make the same errors of the 1970s. 

To your wealth,

Garrett Baldwin

P.S. Please let me know if you have any feedback, questions about today’s issue or anything else. Just email us at hubfeedback@wealthpress.com.

*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 

Market Momentum is Green

On Friday, the markets started panicking after JPMorgan reported earnings. However, the algos – once again – bought the dip and helped fuel another small pop for the day. The S&P 500 had its second weekly push higher in a row, which is bullish for momentum. I still worry that earnings could put a dent into optimism. No one ever got poor taking gains.