After an ugly second half to February driven by economic news, traders are ready for relief.
March, however, points to a seasonally bumpy ride — at least for the first half, which means trading with care while patience remains prudent.
That’s where a plan comes in handy, especially as we look to the second half, where the market gains strength historically.
It’s not as simple as that, but one nice caveat is that fund managers want to look good on March 31 to close out their highly judged first quarter.
Here are three scenarios — neutral, weak and strong — as to how it might play out from month open to close:
The first play to consider is that price action in the S&P 500 could easily test the year open and December lows. If these key levels are reached, many retail traders will become fearful again.
The Dow has already broken below both levels, which doesn’t bode well for the 2022 bear market overachiever.
The Russell, however, caught my eye as it moved above its 10-month moving average, a longer-term view to keep in mind. Likewise, the Nasdaq’s strength can’t be overlooked in the monthly charts.
It’s the Economy — or at Least The Fed
Key economic data dates to keep in mind this month include:
- March 14: Consumer Price Index.
- March 15: Producer Price Index.
- March 22: Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision.
- March 30: U.S. GDP.
If the seasonal trends hold up, the market could view the above news events as mostly positive. I don’t know for sure that this will happen… But what I do know is I will watch for opportunity no matter what.
This month will also bring the regular employment, housing, consumer and sentiment news events, which have recently been mixed with ups and downs.
Watch out for false signals!
Traders will be anxious to make moves, but not all trades will be worthy.
Take extra measures to confirm trades to the upside or the downside.
Think and win!
Celeste Lindman Trading
P.S. New Buy Alert For March
As you may know, Senior Strategist Roger Scott and I are very different traders…
We look at different metrics, target different stocks, and have very different viewpoints on the market. That said, he is still one of the most brilliant minds in finance…
Particularly when it comes to making big-time stock predictions.
And within the past week, he made a BIG-TIME call on an unsuspecting stock… In fact, he even gave these stocks an “ultimate buy alert.”
To be honest, I was skeptical, which is normal for me…
But as he connected the dots, it made complete sense as to why he gave it his “ultimate buy alert.”
Not only did he show us why this stock was a great play for March…
He even showed us how he derived his buy signal. Anyway, if you are looking for a new stock market play…
Something that has potential in both the short and medium term…
Then I Suggest You Listen to What Roger Has to Say!